The true goals of the leaders of Georgia and Russia are becomming clear.

Russia could wish that Georgia became more friendly and aloof of NATO, but there is no way it may happen, and they know it.

Georgia could wish to retake "rebel territories" or "occupied territories" in one fell swoop, or a blietzkrieg, but there is no way it may happen and they know it.

So what do the want, for now at least?

It is high time for a female president, and for a non-traditional politician to boot.  As a mental exercise, let us assume that we have three excellant contenders for the nomination: Snow White, Sleeping Princess and Cinderella.

Strong points:

Snow White.  Connects well with the working people.  Did you know that the seven dwarves were unionized?  Pronounded as the "fairest" by influencial "Magic Mirror" blog.

Sleeping Beauty: never supported Iraq War.

Cinderella: What a life story!  Raised as an orphan...

Oppo research so far.

Snow White.  Personally gained from illegal (out of season) and cruel killing of a doe.

Sleeping Beaty: the knight who awoke her did some work for corporations with unethical practices.

Cinderella: used a crew of illegal workers (mice) when she rode to and from a ball and other, more minor infractions (the pumpkin she rode did not pass inspection).

and the price drop in Euros was even more impressive.  Only 63 Euro per barrel!

I see that ridiculous stuff about oil marching toward 100 is over.  The prices should go down as far as eye can see.  I can see it all the way to 80, of 40 Euros.

Our strategic position improved immeasurably.  It used to be we would not dare to attack Iran, lest the price of oil would rise to nearly $100/bbl, or 120 Euros.

And surely, only pro-wind extremists like Jerome seriously thought that oil could reach 100 dollars.  Ha ha ha!

Actually, this was a diary I started to write yesterday.  Oil jumped to 94.  

BBC News:

Cognac and iPod ban for N Korea

Kim Jong-Il and North Korean generals
Kim Jong-Il is said to enjoy luxuries and share them with the elite
The US has banned exports of iPods, fine wines and fast cars to North Korea as part of the punishment for the country's nuclear bomb test last year.

Is it me, or is it pointless idiocy?  Like banning Cuban archaeologists from attending a conference in Puerto Rico, or banning scientific visits to Cuba shorter (or longer?) than two weeks, disrupting research on the culture of Taino Indians.

To me, it is of the peace with applying special interrogation techniques to Jose Padilla for three years.  Forget morality, what was the point?  The guy was probably crazy after one year, of not after one month, dependent on the diligence of the idiots in charge.

One thing is certain.  Any conspiracy theory starting with the argument they had to have XXX in mind, it does not make sense otherwise has to be abandoned immediately.  It is like figuring long-range rationale behind placing thumbtacks on a teachers chair.

In the interview this morning McCain stated that our defeat in Iraq may lead to a catastrophe.  One part of it was that Zarkawi and Co. will move to other place -- this is a bunk, IMHO, because without extremally peculiar local conditions (like some idiots just removing all security institutions from a state) they have no chance.  Proof: civil war in Algeria; nasty, very nasty, but at the end the government won and i_t w_a_s n_e_v_e_r an issue.

Second part was more serious: Iran's ascendence.  One can still ask: so what?  Domestically, the unfriendly government will gain popularity, but like here, foreign (seeming) success does not give a government a licence to misrule forever.  In several years this ascendence will be back to status quo ante.

The third part was serious indeed: danger to Israel.  If you think "Good!", you can skip the rest of the diary.

Below the fold there is a BBC story from Oct 13 with typical elements: petty restrictions worthy of a sadistic jail warden, callous murder and blantant lies.

Every day IDF kills several people claimed to be "militants".  Sometimes there are no such claims, and every so often, when there is no "militant" in sight near killed persons IDF denies what it plainly did.  Because of those lies, I am putting "militants" in quotes.

To me it is clear that Israel is pushing the envelope, and there are rather careful to do only what they can get away with.  The problem is that because of our support, they can get away with a lot.

The destruction visited upon Lebanon will surely make Hebollah less popular in the long run -- when the fleeting euphoria will go away and the misery will sink in.

Really?  It seems that Iran and Hezbollah planned with several moves ahead.  If Iran will be the main source of reconstruction money, receipients will be either genuinely grateful or at least afraid of biting the hand that brings aid.  And people distributing that aid will cement the hold they have over their communities.

Thinking about it, we could also support reconstruction, neighborhood clinics and other social services etc. delivered by people that WE like better than Hamas, Hezbollah, fundamentalist clerics in Pakistan etc.  

This is an old controversy, brought to focus in part by Walt and Mearsheimer article, but very acute now due to the current war in Lebanon.

The facts are that a) AIPAC does lobby for certain policies; b) for long time, these policies were largely adopted, now, they are adopted completely; c) AIPAC functionaries are on record bragging how they managed to defeat (usually, in primaries) opposing politicians.

Yet, the extend of the "AIPAC success" cannot be explained by the sum of their efforts.  Notably, it seems that AIPAC is much more successful in convincing our elected officials than in convincing American Jews!  Recall a recent lament of  a Lieberman supporter that at least half of his Jewish constituents supports Lamont.  Unless we understand the phenomenon of "AIPAC influence" we cannot rationally discuss it and more importantly, effectively counteract.

In several places, The Economist, The New York Times, the following statement was repeated: ethanol is an economic alternative to gasoline once the price of oil reaches 60 dollars per barrel.

I checked some numbers and it appears wrong.  Very wrong.
Boring calculations and wankish discussion below the fold.

I think that the proposal to abolish filibusters on judicial appointments is more evil than it appears.

Look carefully at what was proposed: to alter the parliamentary rules of the Senate by the will of a simple majority and the word of the "presiding officer".  If this is OK, than no rule is safe.  If no rule is safe, there are no rules.

Suppose that a member of the opposition wants a bill to be read before the vote.  Overruled.

Suppose that a member of the opposition wants the content of a bill to be disclosed before the vote.  Overruled.

Suppose that the majority will convene suddently without the opposition present.  Hey, now they have 2/3 majority and they can amend the Constitution, impeach all inconvenient judges, sky is the limit!

Rules are what prevents the dictatorship of the temporary majority.  Judicial appointments are but a small part of the larger picture.